Today, the A-share market was truly a battle of the gods, with twists and turns. The morning session saw a rebound from an oversold condition, coupled with rumors about Inspur Information, which led to a surge in AI computing power as Inspur Information hit its upper limit. As the market closed, there were rumors circulating about "the central bank purchasing government bonds through QE (Quantitative Easing)," which caused the A-shares to rally strongly. After the lunch break, these rumors fermented, and the market experienced another surge. However, Morgan Stanley refuted the "QE" rumors in the afternoon, and with market confidence still not turned around, capital took the opportunity to sell off, causing the A-shares to plunge and briefly lose the 3,000-point mark. Fortunately, national team funds and others stepped in to buy, and the market slightly warmed up at the end, barely holding onto the 3,000-point level.

Due to restrictions on self-media, we cannot disseminate unverified rumors, so we will refer to articles from official media. According to a report from Securities Times, the biggest boost to today's rise was a rumor: it was said that the central bank might step in to buy bonds, and a "Chinese version of QE" is about to begin.

Advertisement

This article comes from a certain business newspaper, which may not fully understand domestic monetary policy, but domestic institutions are clear that it is not QE, so the bond market did not react much. The circulated images also include Liu Yuhui's "three arrows," and the bond market, which is priced by institutions, is more rational. The stock market, however, is not, and A-shares took advantage of the momentum to rally. Then, in the afternoon session, Morgan Stanley stated that central bank QE would not happen, and it was no longer possible to feign ignorance. Capital took the opportunity to cash out, and A-shares plunged.

In fact, today's rebound in the A-share market in the morning session was market-driven. Last night, four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the Civil Aviation Administration jointly issued the "General Aviation Equipment Application Implementation Plan (2024-2030)," which stimulated a significant increase in related sectors. AI had also adjusted quite a bit, so a rebound from an oversold condition was normal.

There was quite a bit of news about Inspur Information as well. First, it was said to be collaborating with Alibaba on inference chips, and then there was talk of a collaboration with Huawei. In any case, the market believed it, and Inspur Information was the first to hit its upper limit in the morning session. When AI suffered a significant drop the previous two days, Inspur Information was also quite resilient.

Apart from the above major news, during the trading session today, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in the catering industry. It mentioned regulating the development of the pre-cooked food industry. Accelerate the formulation and improvement of standards related to pre-cooked food, continue to carry out risk monitoring and assessment of pre-cooked food, and further strengthen food safety supervision of pre-cooked food.

Looking at the market specifically, by the close, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen by 0.59%, the ChiNext Index by 0.95%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.99%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.44%. The total turnover in the two markets slightly increased to 0.93 trillion, with more than 4,500 stocks rising, and Northbound capital net purchases exceeding 2.3 billion.Looking at the industries, the defense military, computer, communication, media, and electronics industries are leading the gains, while the banking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing sectors are falling. Today, the banking sector fell. On one hand, the banking sector is a defensive one; when the market plummeted yesterday, funds flocked to banks for protection, and naturally, today's stock market rebound would see these funds exiting. On the other hand, the poor performance of China Everbright Bank, which fell by more than 7%, dragged down the banking sector.

The long-term trend of A-shares is upward. Although the Shanghai Composite Index at 3,000 points for ten years has been criticized, the 3,000 points of ten years ago was at a high level, while the current 3,000 points is already in an undervalued range. The day before yesterday, we made a judgment that it would be difficult for A-shares to break below 3,000 points again. Although we were proven wrong yesterday, we still hold on to this judgment. The sharp drop in January this year made the management reflect deeply and thus made up their minds to change the previous ecosystem. The registration system is not mentioned much anymore, and IPOs have almost been suspended. Whether the stock market rises or not depends on the incremental funds. In the past, IPOs, shareholding reductions, and financing led to severe bleeding in the market. Now, not only has this bleeding been curbed, but listed companies have also been encouraged to increase dividend payouts, enhancing their blood-making ability, which means a change in market liquidity.

Tomorrow, the United States will release the core PCE data for February, which the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to. If it exceeds expectations, it is estimated that the US dollar will strengthen again. Coupled with the approaching Qingming holiday, the market trend before the holiday should be like this.